Home Inventory in Hobe Sound Down 3% in November
It is hard to believe that December is here, Hanukkah is underway and Christmas is just 15 days down the road. Around Jupiter, and throughout the southern Florida region, the weather has been incredibly beautiful and the “season” is in the air. Nowhere do we see any signs of a faltering economy here next to the sea.
The analysts are thrilled with what they are seeing out of the housing market with many feeling the real estate industry will be one of the drivers of the economy in 2013 adding as much as 1% to growth. Ask the major home builders what they see ahead and their confidence rating is at a 78 month high. An important statistic, as if history repeats itself, their confidence rating usually arrives about 15 months ahead of meaningful movement in the unemployment rate. That rate dropped to 7.7% in November which is the lowest rate we have seen in over 4 years.
So just why are home builders looking for a big year in 2013? Because buyer’s in today’s market are stymied with little quality inventory to select from. Much of the current local inventory is overpriced and for the first time in years new construction can be competitive in relationship to the cost of existing homes. All of the new home communities in Northern Palm Beach County have had an incredible year and next year things look even better. If the projections are correct watch for higher prices heading your way.
Certainly this is incredible news for homeowners and creates more frenzy among buyers when quality opportunities hit the market. It is important to note that the recent sales activity in the area is somewhat disjointed with many segments under significant upward pricing pressure while others continue languishing a bit. Quality condominiums downtown are very difficult to find while there is plenty of inventory in waterfront hamlets like Singer Island. Single family homes priced under $400,000 get snapped up like hotcakes while there are luxury home neighborhoods with 30% of all homes on the market and not a single sale in over 2 years.
Real estate is definitely very local in nature and neighborhood metrics are constantly changing. One Palm Beach Gardens homeowner who had a $325,000 offer a few months ago would love to have that contract put in front of them again today while another home sold for 25% more than it did just about 6 months back. It is crucial to anyone buying or selling real estate that they fully understand the metrics surrounding their property and are fully informed as they change. No metric is so important as inventory levels and if home builder projections are to come true we need to see the current levels hold or decrease.
While we enjoyed six straight months of inventory levels decreasing the last two months have given us a reversal in that trend. Even though last month all 5 of our reporting communities showed increases we have not seen anything dramatic in the increases over the previous 60 days. Let’s take a closer look at changes in home inventory in Hobe Sound and the surrounding areas over the past month.
This report shows our home inventory “power rankings” for the month ending November 30th. These rankings are set up so the top rated municipality will be the one who shows the highest reduction in inventory levels. Since it is these reductions, when coupled with stronger sales, that will continue to move prices higher we want to rank those accordingly. So here are the inventory power rankings are the rankings for the month of November;
#1 Tequesta –
#1 Hobe Sound – DOWN 3%
#3 Jupiter – UP 2%
#4 Palm Beach Gardens – UP 6%
#5 Juno Beach – UP 10%
During November in the northern Palm Beach County region the average inventory level increased 2.4% with a median increase of 2%. Certainly nothing dramatic to the upside but with sales and absorption rates flattening over the past 60 days another sign of the market starting to cool just a bit. This month we move next to a first place tie with Hobe Sound where inventory fell for the first time in 6 months with a decrease of 3%. As of December 1st, total home inventory in Hobe Sound sits at 331 which is down 9 units from the 340 available on November 1st. With these levels we find ourselves with home inventory in Hobe Sound down 3% from the 12 month average that now sits at 340. Looking at the “seasonal” factor we are also down 5% from the level of home inventory in Hobe Sound that we reported on December 1st of last year.
Another month with an overall increase in inventory levels as buyers continue to be faced with higher list prices making the new construction communities look even more appealing.
Until next month…………