Decline of 24% not a big surprise
We have been telling you that the volume of Jupiter home sales had to drop. After last months’ record volume we knew it was going to happen. The numbers told us this was heading our way and numbers don’t lie. When you look at the chart the drop looks steep but again it follows on the heals of the biggest month we have ever enjoyed for single family home sales in the Northern Palm Beaches. No big deal? Or is it more than that?
In reality, we are still in pretty good shape as Jupiter home sales during the month of August stayed ahead of the 12 month moving average. The “big drop” brought us just slightly below the August sales volume from last year. Consider that more single family homes traded hands in the three months of May, June and July than any 90 day period in history. Home sales for 2014 are just 51 units behind last years torrid pace. Remember that last year was the 2nd highest volume year for Jupiter home sales in history; just a smidgen below the all time record set way back in 2004. So yes, we had sales drop 24% in one month but it still looks like a normal correction to a market that has been flying high. Really high.
We expect further weakness in the months ahead until our winter visitors return and start pulling the trigger on Jupiter home sales. The overall economy seems to be chugging along with the Dow continuing to hit new records seemingly every day. Unless that changes we see another robust, record breaking 2014-2015 season here in paradise. And it’s just around the corner.
What is hard to determine is why sales are dropping. Is it because we continue to see lower home inventory numbers that dropped again as of September 1st for the 6th straight month? Maybe buyers’ want to buy but can’t find the right opportunity because of lack of selection. No doubt that plays a role and if inventory is the main reason we will see prices climb or at least hold steady. Or maybe demand is waning for other reasons in which case we should see prices fall and need to pay close attention to overall market strength. We enjoyed 8 straight months of monthly median gains in single family home prices until they backed off a bit last month. Stay tuned as tomorrow we will bring you the final numbers for August sales prices and see what they tell us. Always interesting, always fun.
Paradise Sharks Real Estate