It has been two weeks since Paradise Sharks brought you the news that median single family home prices in the Jupiter area were down when compared to year ago numbers. It had been five years since that has happened.
One metric we follow closely is the number of homes that sell for over a million dollars. It is a very important number when it comes to tracking real estate prices. You see, since the turn of the century if sales of million dollar homes increase so do the median prices in the overall single family market. If sales of million dollar homes fall so do prices in the overall market. Does it follow this trend each and every year. No, but it has in 13 of the 15 years so the odds are about 87% that this metric holds true.
Last year more homes that sold for a million dollars or more were up for the 6th straight year. We came within a whisker of setting an all time record for the number of these uber luxury homes that sold in a single year, falling just 6 units short of the 2005 benchmark.
Through the first quarter of this year we were on pace to eclipse that now 11 year old record. Heck, we were on pace to break it by a mile with million dollar home sales over 40% higher through the end of March. Then came the second quarter. If you keep up with Paradise Sharks articles you know median single family home prices in the Jupiter area have been down each month during the second quarter. For the first time in 5 years they fell bellow year ago numbers. Maybe just a blip on the screen and a normal pullback that might be healthy for the long term market. Maybe.
Maybe not, when we start analyzing what happened to million dollar home sales in the 2nd quarter and they were down. And not just a little bit. They were down so far that the 40% “lead” we created through the first quarter has disappeared. For the year we now find ourselves 11.5% behind last years “almost” record price. Remember that 87% of the time when million dollar home sales fall so do median prices in the overall market.
However, the year isn’t finished. The discrepancy in sales during the first two quarters show us how quickly things can change. A strong third quarter can put us back in the game. But a 35% decline in million dollar home sales over the past three months has us watching.
If you care about real estate values you should watch too and if Paradise Sharks can be of help in any way please feel free to contact us at 561.308.0175 or firstname.lastname@example.org.